The skill or ability to understand complex systems and their interconnections, and how to shape them.

A general pattern or direction of change that has been observed over time, which may continue or shift in the future. Trends can be strong or weak, increasing, decreasing, or stable, and are used in foresight to understand the trajectory of developments.

A systematic method to identify and interpret patterns of change to map potential future developments. It involves analysing data and signals from various sources to identify emerging trends and understand how they may evolve over time, allowing organizations to anticipate and adapt to future changes.

A degree of variability, lack of predictability, or state of doubt about the future or about what is the right thing to do.

A description of a preferred future state. It articulates what the world could look like if certain aspirations were realised. A vision provides a clear and compelling image of the desired future, serving as a guiding star to help individuals and organizations navigate toward that future. It is often grounded in a deep understanding of current trends and emerging developments, and provides a positive and inspiring view of what could be achieved.

These are subtle and early indicators of potential future developments that may not yet be widely recognised. Identifying and monitoring these signals can help in detecting emerging trends and potential disruptions before they become obvious to everyone.

An unforeseen or uncertain factor that could potentially disrupt or significantly impact a situation or scenario. This term can encompass various types of unexpected events, including black swans (low-probability, high-impact events), as well as other emerging trends or developments that were previously unforeseen.

A method to stress-test objectives and strategies against alternative future scenarios. It can also be used to understand how different contexts modify needs and how to adapt our strategies to changing contexts.