For UNGP, it is a way to purposefully test and validate different value propositions around foresight. UNGP combines foresight with data, behavioural and innovation approaches. Our experiments-driven approach recognises that foresight is a rapidly-evolving discipline and not a one-size-fits-all solution.

Predicting or estimating the likelihood of a future event or trend based on quantitative analysis and modelling.

A collaborative process to explore futures in a structured and systematic way to anticipate, prepare and affect the course of change. It involves using a range of methods and tools to, for instance, analyse trends, identify potential disruptions or opportunities, and consider multiple possible scenarios for the future.

The different levels in an organization or team at which  foresight approaches are executed and implemented.

A ranking of possible policies or strategies according to their effectiveness in various future scenarios. The options are categorised as “no regrets,” which are effective in all scenarios; “opt-out” options, which are effective in most scenarios but may need to be opted-out of in some situations; “opt-in” options, which are effective in a minority of scenarios, requiring investment in capabilities in case they need to be opted-in at a later date; and “abandon” options, which are ineffective in all scenarios.

A tool designed by futurist, Joseph Voros, that helps to visualise and explore a range of different futures. These include: projected future (the default “business as usual” future); probable futures (likely based on current trends); plausible futures (credible based on current knowledge); possible futures (potential but uncertain); preferred futures (desired) and preposterous futures (unlikely or improbable). It is a helpful tool to demonstrate that the future is not linear.

Discussions or conversations that explore potential futures and the opportunities and challenges that they present. They involve stakeholders from various sectors, backgrounds, gender, age and parts of society and aim to build consensus and cooperation toward a shared vision of the future.

A capability and a skill that allows people to better understand the role that the future plays in what they see and do.

Academic discipline, research methods and tools used to develop knowledge about the future. It includes foresight, forecasting and strategic planning. Following recent developments shifting the focus from futures studies to anticipation, futures studies now capture Indigenous futurity and non-dominant conceptions of time.

A tool to map the future through the three dimensions that are shaping it: the pull of the future, the push of the present, and the weight of history. It is a simple and quick instrument for understanding plausible futures based on the interactions and movements of the three forces.

A tool for visualising the direct and indirect future consequences of a particular driver, event or issue. It is a structured brainstorming on chains of “if, then” statements and helps move from isolated signals and possibilities to more complex forecasts about possible futures.

A method to identify potential early signals of change and its challenges and opportunities. It is a structured evidence-gathering process that explores the external strategic environment and brings together perspectives from different sources. Horizon scanning is the foundation of a strategic foresight process and is often found at the beginning of the forward-looking activity.