The default future that will happen if nothing changes.

A set of cross-cutting capabilities indicated in ‘Our Common Agenda’ to accelerate the UN system transformation. It includes data and digital, innovation, strategic foresight and behavioural science.

The process of identifying, assessing and evaluating risks that could potentially impact an organization or strategy. It involves developing and implementing actions to minimise the negative impact and capitalise on opportunities.

A structured process for creating a visual representation of a strategic plan or pathway to achieve a desired future. It includes identifying key actions, strategies, policies and changes, as well as mapping interconnections and interdependencies between different components.

An individual or team that scans for potential signals of a changing environment, often part of a structured horizon scanning process.

Descriptions of plausible alternative futures, not to be treated as predictions. Scenarios are not predictive but help explore a broad scope of potential outcomes. They can be developed using diverse tools, such as Archetype Scenarios or the 2×2 matrix.

A first step in the foresight process to outline the project goals and objectives and define methods, tools and processes that best suit the challenge.

The process of creating awareness and understanding in situations of high complexity or uncertainty in order to make informed decisions. This also relates to understanding and contextualising insights generated throughout the foresight process.

forces that have the potential to shape the future, policy or strategy area. For example, climate change is a signal of change in the context of urban development.

A process to identify and analyse the various individuals and groups who have a stake in a particular issue or decision. This process involves identifying key stakeholders, assessing their interests, influence and power and mapping their relationship with one another. In foresight, it can be used to help understand possible futures based on stakeholders’ interests and/or to identify key participants in foresight activities.

 A systematic approach to embedding foresight into processes and programmes to inform strategies and policies in order to actively shape the future. It involves a collaborative process that brings together diverse stakeholders to consider different assumptions and points of view. It is often used as an umbrella term that includes future-oriented methods and approaches.

A method used in foresight to visually represent and understand complex systems and their interconnections with the goal of identifying potential drivers of change and their likely impacts on the system.